Ontario Tourism Outlook 2008-2012

 

• Inbound and Outbound Tables
• Key Drivers

 Forecast Completed in March 2008

• Overall travel to Ontario in 2008 is expected to decline by -0.6%. Overnight travel will decline by -0.7% and same-day travel will decline by -0.5%. 
• In 2009, we expect travel to Ontario to increase by 1.1%.

 

 

Total Ontario Inbound
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Total Visits (000)	-3.4%	1.1%	-0.6%	1.1%	1.5%	1.6%	1.7%
Overnight	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.7%	0.3%	1.4%	1.9%	2.2%
Same-day	-5.7%	2.1%	-0.5%	1.6%	1.6%	1.4%	1.4%
Business	-3.5%	-0.7%	-1.1%	1.3%	2.3%	1.1%	1.1%
Non-business	-3.4%	1.2%	-0.5%	1.1%	1.4%	1.7%	1.8%
Total Expenditures ($000)	-0.6%	1.4%	-1.2%	-0.8%	1.7%	3.1%	3.2%
Overnight	1.2%	-1.1%	-2.4%	1.1%	2.1%	3.5%	3.4%
Same-day	-5.1%	8.1%	1.5%	-5.0%	0.6%	2.3%	2.8%
Business	0.6%	-0.6%	-6.3%	-0.7%	2.9%	2.7%	2.6%
Non-business	-0.9%	2.0%	0.3%	-0.8%	1.3%	3.3%	3.4%
NOTE: Total visits include domestic, U.S. and overseas, though expenditures include only those of Canadian and U.S. visitors.

 

• For 2008, U.S. travel to Ontario is expected to be down by -8.6%, while overseas travel to Ontario is also expected to be down by -1.6%.

 

• The outlook includes continued declines in U.S. visits as a result of the new WHTI document requirements. Over the period 2009 to 2012, U.S. visits to Ontario are expected to decline by 1.46 million visits per year, while visits from Ontario to the U.S. are expected to decline as well, but at a much lower rate (declines ranging from 344,000 to 423,000 over the period) and intra-provincial visits are expected to increase. 

WHTI Impact on Visits ('000)
	2009	2010	2011	2012
Intra-Provincial Visits	706	747	815	869
Visits to the US	-344	-423	-395	-352
Visits from the US	-1,460	-1,460	-1,460	-1,460

 

TECHNICAL NOTES

This outlook was undertaken using the Ontario Tourism Forecasting Model estimated during March 2008. This is an econometric model that uses primarily economic data to forecast travel.

This forecast uses Global Insight’s historical data and forecasts for economic factors at the national, provincial, U.S. regional and International level. Ontario tourism data, including tourism price data and weather data was obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Environment Canada. Statistics for travel are obtained from Statistics Canada. Data for travel within Ontario/Canada are available through the fourth quarter of 2004. International travel statistics are available through the fourth quarter of 2006. Tourism price index data was available through the fourth quarter of 2007.